Harnett Accontants

Harnett & Co | Chartered Accountants, Kingston upon Thames
Global House Business Centre 1 Ashley Avenue Epsom Surrey KT18 5AD
ICAEW Authorised Practice
Cashflow Forecasting | Harnett & Co — Chartered Accountants Kingston upon Thames Skip to main content
Financial Planning

Cashflow Forecasting
that keeps you in control

Cash is the lifeblood of any business. Even profitable companies can and do fail when the timing of cash coming in does not match the timing of cash going out. We build clear, practical cashflow forecasts that tell you exactly where you stand, when problems are coming and what you can do about them in time to act.

📞 020 8977 9500
13-Week and 12-Month Forecasts
Three-Way Financial Models
Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis
Lender and Investor Ready
ICAEW Regulated
Why it matters

Profit and cash are not the same thing, and confusing them is expensive

It is one of the most common misconceptions in small business finance. A business can be profitable on paper and simultaneously running out of cash. It happens when customers pay slowly, when VAT or corporation tax bills arrive faster than expected, when a large purchase is needed ahead of an income spike or simply when the business grows faster than its working capital can support.

A cashflow forecast does not just tell you how much money you will have. It tells you when you will have it. That timing information is what allows you to make better decisions: to negotiate longer payment terms with suppliers before you need to, to approach a lender while the business is in good shape rather than in crisis, to hold off on a large purchase until the timing is right, or to take action on slow-paying customers before their habits become your problem.

We build forecasts that are grounded in your actual financial data, regularly updated to reflect what is really happening in the business and presented in a way that is genuinely useful to you rather than just a spreadsheet that sits in a drawer. Whether you need a short-term 13-week view for tight cash control or a comprehensive 12-month rolling forecast for strategic planning, we tailor the output to your situation.

Built from real data — forecasts based on your actual accounts, payment terms and trading patterns, not generic templates
Early warning built in — potential cash shortfalls highlighted months before they become critical, giving you time to act
Scenario modelling included — we model best, base and worst case assumptions so you understand the range of outcomes, not just the most optimistic one
Integrates with cloud accounting — linked to your Xero, QuickBooks or Sage account so actuals replace projections automatically each month
Lender-ready format — produced in the format required by banks, invoice finance providers and alternative lenders when assessing credit applications
Plain English commentary — every forecast includes a written commentary explaining what the numbers mean and what we recommend you do in response
What we cover

Everything you need to stay ahead of your cashflow

We produce cashflow forecasts for every purpose and every horizon, from immediate short-term control to multi-year strategic planning, integrated with your existing accounting software.

📅

13-Week Short-Term Forecast

A week-by-week view of cash coming in and going out over the next three months. This is the most granular and immediately actionable type of forecast, showing exactly when specific payments fall due and when receipts are expected. It is the standard format used by banks and turnaround advisors, and the most effective tool for businesses that need tight control of their short-term cash position right now.

Most urgent
📈

12-Month Rolling Forecast

A monthly cashflow projection covering the next 12 months, updated each month so the horizon always stays a full year ahead. This is the core planning tool for most growing businesses, identifying the likely low points in the cash cycle well in advance and allowing you to make proactive decisions about timing, investment and financing before pressure builds.

Most popular
🔀

Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis

Rather than producing a single forecast number, we build best, base and worst case scenarios so you can see how the cashflow changes if revenue comes in 20% lower than expected, if a major customer pays late, or if a key cost increases. Sensitivity analysis answers the question that matters most to any business owner: what happens if things do not go to plan, and what is my margin of safety?

📊

Three-Way Financial Forecast

An integrated financial model linking your projected profit and loss account, balance sheet and cashflow statement into a single, connected forecast. A change in one assumption flows through all three statements automatically. This is the format required by banks and investors for loan applications, due diligence and formal restructuring situations, and it is by far the most comprehensive picture of a business's financial future.

For lenders
🚀

Start-Up Cashflow Forecast

New businesses need cashflow forecasts most of all, because without a trading history the only way to know whether the business is financially viable is to model it carefully. We build start-up forecasts from scratch, working through your revenue assumptions, cost base, payment terms, tax obligations and funding requirements to produce a realistic picture of what the first 12 to 24 months will look like financially.

🌊

Seasonal Business Forecasting

Seasonal businesses face some of the most challenging cashflow profiles. Revenue is concentrated in a short window while fixed costs continue throughout the year. We model the exact timing of your seasonal revenue peaks and troughs alongside your cost base, calculate the lowest point in the cash cycle and identify the funding needed to bridge any gap, whether that comes from reserves, an overdraft or invoice finance.

🏦

Lender and Investor Forecasts

When you are approaching a bank for a loan, raising investment or applying for invoice finance, the quality of your cashflow forecast is often the difference between approval and rejection. We prepare lender-ready forecast models with clearly stated assumptions, sensitivity analysis and a professional presentation that demonstrates you understand your business and have planned its finances with genuine rigour.

🔄

Ongoing Monthly Cashflow Review

A one-off forecast that is never updated loses its value quickly. As part of our management accounts service, we update your cashflow forecast each month, replacing projections with actuals, extending the forecast horizon and flagging any material variances that need attention. You receive a brief commentary each month explaining what the updated numbers mean for your business in practical terms.

💡

Cashflow Gap Management

If the forecast reveals a shortfall, knowing about it early gives you real options. We work through the available levers with you: accelerating debtor collections, negotiating extended creditor terms, timing VAT and corporation tax payments strategically, drawing down on an available overdraft or exploring invoice discounting. We help you choose the right solution for your specific situation and timeline.

Forecast horizons explained

Choosing the right forecast for your situation

Different situations call for different forecasting horizons and levels of detail. Here is a plain-English guide to the four main types we produce and when each one is most useful.

Short-term forecast
Immediate control
Horizon: 4 to 13 weeks, weekly

The most granular view of your cashflow, broken down week by week. Every known payment and receipt is mapped to the specific week it is expected to move through your bank account. This forecast answers the question your bank manager would ask: will you have enough cash next Tuesday to meet payroll and pay the VAT bill that falls due?

  • Shows week-by-week opening and closing cash balance
  • Maps specific invoice due dates against known outgoings
  • Highlights the exact weeks where cash dips below a safe threshold
  • Updated weekly with actual bank movements replacing projections

Best for: Businesses under financial pressure, rapid growth phases, post-acquisition integration and any situation requiring tight short-term cash control.

Rolling 12-month forecast
Strategic planning
Horizon: 12 months, monthly

The standard planning tool for most growing businesses. Presented month by month, this forecast identifies the likely cash low points in the year ahead with enough lead time to plan around them. It is updated monthly as actual figures replace projections, so the horizon always stays a full year ahead and the forecast remains relevant throughout the year.

  • Month-by-month cash position across the next 12 months
  • Includes known tax payments: VAT, PAYE, corporation tax instalments
  • Reflects seasonal trading patterns and known large receipts or payments
  • Updated monthly with actuals to maintain a rolling one-year horizon

Best for: Most small and growing businesses as a core ongoing management tool, and essential preparation for any loan or credit application.

Three-way financial forecast
Lenders and investors
Horizon: 12 to 36 months, monthly

The most comprehensive financial model available, linking three statements: a projected profit and loss account, a projected balance sheet and a projected cashflow statement. All three are fully interconnected, meaning a change in one assumption such as a different debtor days figure flows through to every statement automatically. This is the standard format expected by banks, private equity investors and formal restructuring advisors.

  • Integrated profit and loss, balance sheet and cashflow in one model
  • Clearly stated assumptions that can be adjusted to run scenarios
  • Sensitivity analysis showing impact of key variable changes
  • Professional presentation suitable for board, bank and investor review

Best for: Bank loan applications, investment raises, management buyouts, formal restructuring situations and businesses with complex financial structures.

Long-term strategic forecast
Growth planning
Horizon: 2 to 5 years, monthly or quarterly

A longer-horizon financial model used for strategic planning, acquisition appraisal, succession planning and business valuation purposes. Because accuracy decreases with distance from today, a long-term forecast is less about predicting specific cash balances and more about understanding the financial shape of different strategic options: what does the cashflow look like if we open a second location, acquire a competitor or bring in a new product line?

  • Models multiple strategic scenarios side by side for comparison
  • Used in business valuations as the basis for DCF calculations
  • Identifies the long-term funding requirements of a growth strategy
  • Helps stress-test whether a proposed strategy is financially achievable

Best for: Business owners planning a significant growth phase, preparing for a sale, assessing an acquisition or planning succession over a multi-year timeline.

Warning signs

Signs your business needs a cashflow forecast right now

Many business owners only think about cashflow forecasting when they are already in difficulty. By that point, the range of options available has narrowed considerably. The earlier a forecast is built and maintained, the more control you have over the outcome.

If any of the situations on the right feel familiar, now is the right time to get a clear picture of your cashflow position. We can usually produce an initial forecast within one to two weeks of receiving your financial information, giving you a clear view of what is coming and the time to do something about it.

⚠️
You are regularly surprised by your bank balance If the amount in your account never quite matches your expectations, a forecast will show you why and help you anticipate the timing gaps before they cause problems.
💳
You are using your overdraft more than you expected Routine overdraft use is often a sign of a predictable but unmanaged timing mismatch in cashflow that a forecast would reveal and allow you to plan around.
📬
HMRC payments are catching you off guard VAT, PAYE and corporation tax payments are predictable in advance. A forecast builds them in explicitly so there are no surprises when the due dates arrive.
📊
You are profitable but always feel cash-poor This is the classic symptom of a cashflow timing problem. The profit is real, but it is tied up in debtors, stock or overly generous payment terms. A forecast shows you where it is and when it will be released.
🏦
You are thinking about approaching a bank or investor Any lender or investor will ask to see a cashflow forecast. Preparing one properly in advance, rather than rushing it at the last minute, significantly increases your chances of success.
How we work

From first conversation to a forecast you can use

Most initial forecasts are delivered within one to two weeks of us receiving your financial information.

1

Initial conversation

We discuss your situation, what is driving the need for a forecast and what decisions you need it to support. This shapes the type of forecast, the horizon and the level of detail required.

2

Data gathering

We request your recent accounts, management figures and details of key payment terms, upcoming tax liabilities and any large known receipts or expenditures. We keep the information request focused and straightforward.

3

Build and review

We build the forecast model, apply scenarios, check the assumptions against your trading reality and review the output before sharing it with you. We walk you through the key findings and what they mean in practice.

4

Ongoing updates

Each month we update the forecast with actual figures, extend the rolling horizon and provide a brief commentary on material changes. You always have a current, accurate picture of your cashflow position.

Who we help

Cashflow forecasting for every type of business

We work with businesses at every stage across West London and Surrey, from start-ups building their first forecast to established companies managing complex seasonal cashflow cycles.

🚀

Start-Ups and Early-Stage Businesses

Without a trading history, a carefully built cashflow forecast is the most important financial document your business has. We build start-up forecasts that are realistic, clearly reasoned and designed to support funding applications and early decision-making.

📈

Growing Businesses

Growth consumes cash faster than most business owners expect. Taking on new staff, buying stock ahead of demand and funding the gap between invoicing and receipt can all create pressure. We model the cashflow impact of your growth plans before you commit to them.

🌊

Seasonal Businesses

Hospitality, retail, events, tourism and many professional services businesses have highly seasonal cashflow profiles. We build forecasts that accurately reflect the peaks and troughs in your trading cycle and identify the funding needed to bridge the quiet periods.

🏦

Businesses Seeking Finance

Any bank loan, overdraft renewal, invoice finance facility or equity investment will require a well-presented cashflow forecast. We produce lender-ready forecasts that give decision-makers confidence in the quality of your financial planning and the viability of your request.

⚠️

Businesses Under Financial Pressure

If cash is tight right now, a 13-week forecast is the first thing any advisor will produce. It maps exactly where you are, what is coming and how much time you have to act. Early clarity on the numbers dramatically improves the range of outcomes available to you.

🏢

Established SMEs

Many established businesses have never had a formal cashflow forecast in place. If you have always managed by feel and the business is now large enough that surprises are costly, a rolling 12-month forecast integrated with your management accounts will give you the visibility you need.

Common questions

Cashflow forecasting questions, answered plainly

A cashflow forecast is a projection of the cash coming into and going out of your business over a defined period, whether that is the next 13 weeks, the next 12 months or further ahead. It tells you when cash will be tight, when you will have surplus funds and whether the business can afford the decisions you are considering. Many profitable businesses run into serious difficulty not because they are losing money, but because their cash timing is poor. A well-maintained cashflow forecast is the earliest warning system available to a business owner, giving you time to act before a shortage becomes a crisis rather than discovering the problem when it is already upon you.

A budget is a plan for what you intend to spend and earn. A cashflow forecast is a prediction of when cash will actually arrive in and leave your bank account. The two are related but distinct. A large sale that you invoice in March may not result in cash in the bank until May if your customer pays on 60-day terms. A budget would record the revenue in March; the cashflow forecast would show the actual receipt in May. Understanding the timing difference is often the key to avoiding unexpected shortfalls, particularly around VAT payment dates, payroll runs and corporation tax instalments.

A 13-week cashflow forecast covers the next three months on a week-by-week basis. It is the most granular and immediately useful type of forecast because it shows exactly when specific payments are due and when specific receipts are expected. It is the standard format used by banks, insolvency practitioners and turnaround advisors when reviewing a business under financial pressure, but it is also extremely valuable as a routine management tool for any business that wants tight control of its short-term cash position. Each week, you replace last week's projections with actual bank movements so the forecast always reflects the current position.

A three-way forecast integrates three financial statements into a single, connected model: a projected profit and loss account, a projected balance sheet and a projected cashflow statement. Because all three are linked, a change in one assumption flows through to all three statements automatically. This is the most comprehensive type of financial forecast and is typically required by banks when assessing a business loan application, by investors conducting due diligence and in formal restructuring or insolvency situations. We build three-way forecast models that are easy to update and that clearly show the assumptions behind every projection.

For most small businesses, updating the cashflow forecast monthly is sufficient. Each month, you replace the prior month's projections with actual figures, extend the forecast by one month to maintain the rolling horizon, and review whether the assumptions behind future months still hold. If the business is going through rapid growth, financial pressure or significant change, weekly updates to a short-term 13-week forecast provide much tighter control. We manage the update process for you as part of our ongoing management accounts service, or provide you with a model you can update yourself between our monthly reviews.

Yes. Any lender, whether a bank, asset finance provider or alternative lender, will want to see a cashflow forecast before approving a loan or credit facility. The forecast demonstrates that you understand your business's finances, that the funding is genuinely needed and that the business can service the repayments from its projected cashflow. A poorly presented or unrealistic forecast is one of the most common reasons loan applications are declined or reduced. We prepare lender-ready forecast models with clearly stated assumptions and sensitivity analysis showing how the business would cope if conditions were less favourable than expected.

Seasonal businesses have some of the most challenging cashflow profiles because revenue is concentrated in a short period while costs continue throughout the year. A well-built seasonal cashflow forecast maps the exact timing of revenue peaks and troughs alongside the fixed cost base, identifies the lowest point in the cash cycle and calculates how much funding is needed to bridge the gap between seasons. We work with seasonal businesses across hospitality, retail and professional services and build forecasts that reflect the genuine cash rhythm of the business rather than smoothing it into misleading monthly averages.

Get started

Ready to take control of your cashflow?

Get in touch for a no-obligation conversation. We will discuss what type of forecast suits your situation, what information we need to build it and give you a clear, fixed-fee quote for the work involved.

📞 020 8977 9500